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Policy

Economy

Today

The City of Sydney Christmas tree in Martin Place.

Cost of living crunch adds urgency to Christmas charity appeals

Charities are reporting a dip in the number of donations amid a heightened need for support.

  • 11 mins ago
  • Gus McCubbing
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

UK inflation slows more than forecast, fuelling rate-cut bets

Consumer prices rose 3.9 per cent from a year earlier, down from 4.6 per cent in October, according to the latest monthly data.

  • Tom Rees and Lucy White
Air-fare inflation dropped to 3.3 per cent in November from 7.9 per cent the previous month, while train and bus costs also increased by less year-on-year than in October.

Surprise fall in UK services inflation may hold key to rate cuts

Economists expect services inflation to continue subsiding, pushed lower by the drop in energy prices, the weakening jobs market and lacklustre demand.

  • Tom Rees
While sales are strong at Melbourne-based food packaging manufacturer Pinpak, owner Richard Trchala said he expected conditions to soften over the next year

Manufacturing sector mood hits lowest level since the GFC

A net 41 per cent of manufacturers expect conditions to worsen during the next six months, according to the ACCI-Westpac industrial trends survey.

  • Michael Read

Yesterday

Beware economists who won’t admit they were wrong

From an economic point of view, 2023 will go down in the record books as one of the best years ever.

  • Paul Krugman
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This Month

Australians are facing an economic environment of rapidly rising interest rates.

RBA warns it may raise rates again, but markets predict cuts

Markets doubt the central bank will deliver any more rate rises, despite warning it may need to deliver another increase if inflation remains high.

  • Michael Read
 The lowest-hanging fruit for raising productivity growth is to move the population up from lower levels of educational attainment.

Tip private schools out of boardrooms for a more productive Australia

Favouring the wealthy over innate talent in the education system is no way to filter what a country’s human capital might have to offer.

  • Adrian Blundell-Wignall
Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee.

Fed officials add to chorus pushing back against rate-cut bets

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said he was surprised by the outsize market reaction to the Fed’s updated quarterly economic projections last week.

  • Catarina Saraiva
An overhauled immigration system will bring respite from the skills shortage crisis.

Labor starts long-term migration planning amid population boom

The inaugural ministerial migration roundtable comes amid growing concern about record numbers of foreign arrivals.

  • Michael Read

Labor rejects 6pc rise in health insurance premiums

Health Minister Mark Butler has rejected a request to lift premiums by 4 to 6 per cent, as Labor tries to quell voter discontent over cost of living pressures.

  • Updated
  • Michael Read
Mike Henry, Amanda Lacaze and Kevin Gallagher

CEOs warn red tape, higher rates holding back investment

The country’s top energy and resources leaders say stresses from higher financing costs are being compounded by activism and unfriendly government policies.

  • James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald
Maybe Lucky Jim has been fighting in Cabinet, but I suspect he is focussing on the levers he controls.

Unlucky Jim undermined by his colleagues’ contradictory policies

The treasurer is hoping for a smooth landing on inflation, but the supply-side policies of his fellow ministers make that less likely.

  • Ed Shann
Shoppers in Melbourne: a pre-election spendathon would keep up pressure on inflation.

10 long reads for the weekend

Welcome to the weekend. To start off your day, we’ve curated 10 great reads to enjoy.

New York Federal Reserve boss John Williams.

Fed insider says talk of a March rate cut is premature

Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams said it’s too early for officials to begin thinking about cutting rates as soon as March.

  • Craig Torres
The Chanticleer podcast features James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald.

AFR Business People of the Year | What CEOs want | Inside Chemist Warehouse

In this week’s episode, James and Anthony take a deep dive into what CEOs want to see from Anthony Albanese in 2024 and discuss the astounding Chemist Warehouse deal.

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Display monitors show the result of a UN General Assembly vote on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Votes at the UN are not for the home gallery

Voting for a one-sided Gaza resolution for domestic political reasons just betrays our foreign policy principles and costs us practical influence.

  • The AFR View
Shemara Wikramanayake, Rob Scott, Vanessa Hudson, Matt Comyn, Mike Henry, Vicki Brady, Ross McEwan, Amanda Lacaze.

What top CEOs want the Albanese government to focus on in 2024

Corporate leaders want the Labor government to focus on helping households with cost-of-living pressures, the housing crisis and slow planning approvals. 

  • James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald
NAB boss Ross McEwan says housing is Australia’s biggest issue.

Why our top CEOs fear for the great Australian dream

The concern among top CEOs about the housing crisis reflects broader worries about inequality, productivity and growth in a slowing economy. 

  • James Thomson

Why interest rate cuts are in sight

History shows that central banks often begin cutting rates before annual inflation falls back to target. Markets are now pricing in two cuts before the end of 2024.

  • John Kehoe

Young renters to bear the brunt of personal insolvency surge

People aged 24 to 45 comprise the majority of people who declare personal insolvency, and a new wave is coming.

  • Max Mason