Labor starts long-term migration planning amid population boom

The latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll finds that since the previous poll in September, “immigration and asylum” jumped 8 percentage points in terms of issues upon which voters want the government to focus. It has risen from 13th on the list to eighth.

Over the same three-month period, the government’s rating as a manager of “immigration and asylum” fell eight points to 23 per cent, and it now lags the Coalition, which is on 36 per cent, by 13 points.

Speaking at the weekend, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he did not consider himself a “big Australia person”.

“This [strategy] is a really important piece of economic reform which recognises that migration’s been a source of strength in our society and in our economy for a long time … but that migration needs to be in our national economic interest,” he told media outlet The Conversation.

Mr Giles will lead a conversation on the potential for long-term planning to better align migration numbers with state and territory government capacity to deliver infrastructure, housing and services.

The size of the permanent program has fluctuated between 160,000 and 195,000 people over the past decade, with the Albanese government settling on a 190,000 person intake in the current financial year ending next June 30.

‘Normal’ migration intake

As the Albanese government seeks to regain the initiative on migration, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has pitched the government’s strategy as part of a commitment to “returning migration levels back to normal”.

But despite its rhetoric, Labor has largely resisted political pressure to slash the overall migration intake, instead cracking down on foreign students to put downward pressure on the number of foreign arrivals.

Actions taken by the government since the May budget will mean 185,000 fewer net overseas arrivals will arrive in the next four years than would have otherwise occurred, analysis by the Home Affairs Department shows.

This includes putting an end to the COVID-19-era pandemic event visa in September, which had granted 120,000 people unlimited work rights for 12 months.

The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook forecast net overseas migration will fall to 375,000 people this financial year and 250,000 in financial year 2025.

Mr Giles said he wanted to bring together all levels of government to better plan for the long-term future of the migration system.

“It’s integral that as we look to implement reform through the migration strategy, states and territories have a seat at the table – something that the former Liberal government failed to do,” he said.

“We must ensure that our long-term planning for migration aligns with population, infrastructure, housing and services planning, across all levels of government.”