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Inflation

Today

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

UK inflation slows more than forecast, fuelling rate-cut bets

Consumer prices rose 3.9 per cent from a year earlier, down from 4.6 per cent in October, according to the latest monthly data.

  • Tom Rees and Lucy White
Air-fare inflation dropped to 3.3 per cent in November from 7.9 per cent the previous month, while train and bus costs also increased by less year-on-year than in October.

Surprise fall in UK services inflation may hold key to rate cuts

Economists expect services inflation to continue subsiding, pushed lower by the drop in energy prices, the weakening jobs market and lacklustre demand.

  • Tom Rees
While sales are strong at Melbourne-based food packaging manufacturer Pinpak, owner Richard Trchala said he expected conditions to soften over the next year

Manufacturing sector mood hits lowest level since the GFC

A net 41 per cent of manufacturers expect conditions to worsen during the next six months, according to the ACCI-Westpac industrial trends survey.

  • Michael Read

Yesterday

Beware economists who won’t admit they were wrong

From an economic point of view, 2023 will go down in the record books as one of the best years ever.

  • Paul Krugman

This Month

Oil prices are a key determinate of geopolitical tension, Hagai Segal says.

Red Sea oil spike is exactly what markets and central banks don’t need

Falling energy price have made the fight against inflation much easier, which in turn has boosted markets. The Red Sea attacks threaten to change that. 

  • James Thomson
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Australians are facing an economic environment of rapidly rising interest rates.

RBA warns it may raise rates again, but markets predict cuts

Markets doubt the central bank will deliver any more rate rises, despite warning it may need to deliver another increase if inflation remains high.

  • Michael Read

Labor rejects 6pc rise in health insurance premiums

Health Minister Mark Butler has rejected a request to lift premiums by 4 to 6 per cent, as Labor tries to quell voter discontent over cost of living pressures.

  • Updated
  • Michael Read
Falling rates and rising markets have helped get deals moving again.

What’s behind Monday’s $5b deal frenzy

A burst of pre-Christmas deals isn’t unusual. But the impressive market rally in the past six weeks has helped unstick some deals that have been simmering for some time. 

  • James Thomson
Bulls are feeling good about the rally this year, while bears think the hard landing is still possible.

Why it might be time to strap in for a wild end to 2023 on markets

Shares have rallied hard in the past six weeks, but more big moves in the dog days of December aren’t out of the question.

  • James Thomson
New York Federal Reserve boss John Williams.

Fed insider says talk of a March rate cut is premature

Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams said it’s too early for officials to begin thinking about cutting rates as soon as March.

  • Craig Torres
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says economic management must be a core strength for Labor.

US rate cuts could aid Labor election strategy: Chalmers

Labor’s mission between now and the next election is to seize the mantle of superior economic manager, says Jim Chalmers.

  • Phillip Coorey

Dow’s record outruns central banks, counts on aggressive rate cuts

The Fed is expected to be the first central bank to lower rates next year, ahead of the European Central Bank and Bank of England, and months before the RBA.

  • Cecile Lefort and Joanne Tran
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis has suggested indexing income tax thresholds to the 2.5 per cent inflation target.

Ease income tax burden automatically, says Westpac’s Ellis

Tax brackets should be adjusted annually to help limit the squeeze on household incomes, former RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis says.

  • John Kehoe
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t spend much time in the Oval Office.

Anyone seen that US recession?

The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.

  • Matthew Cranston
New Zealand is the first advanced economy to enter into a bona fide “stagflationary recession”.

New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world

While markets are rejoicing about the prospect of lower interest rates next year, stagflation across the ditch points to very different possibilities.

  • Christopher Joye
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A surge in theft in the UK is pushing up the cost of insuring cars such as the Range Rover Sport.

Range Rovers become thief magnets, causing prices to tumble

A surge in car thefts in Britain has made insuring high-end models prohibitively expensive, forcing down prices of second-hand luxury cars.

  • Jamie Nimmo

Young renters to bear the brunt of personal insolvency surge

People aged 24 to 45 comprise the majority of people who declare personal insolvency, and a new wave is coming.

  • Max Mason
Britain’s economy wasn’t quite as gloomy as everyone thought.

BoE keeps rates at 15-year high despite economy fears

The central bank left the main rate at 5.25 per cent, where it has stood since August following the end of nearly two years of increases.

  • Pan Pylas
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have been keen for Labor to shake the perception of being an inferior economic manager.

We’ll be back in election mode on the other side of Christmas

Three-year terms mean that the government, after just 20 months in power, will start pulling down the new policy shutters, with the opposition dialling everything up to 11.

  • Phillip Coorey
Micaela Fuchila at Bank of America says the RBA lacks confidence that economic data is turning just yet.

Traders double down on RBA rate cuts after Fed pivot

Bond markets are pricing more aggressive monetary easing in the US and Australia after the Federal Reserve flagged a peak in interest rates.

  • Cecile Lefort