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Young renters to bear the brunt of personal insolvency surge

Max Mason
Max MasonSenior reporter

Young renters bearing the brunt of cost-of-living pressures will be a driving force of a more than 20 per cent rise in annual bankruptcies for at least the next two years, according to government forecasts.

The Australian Financial Security Authority expects personal insolvencies to jump 23 per cent to 12,250 in 2023-24, and a further 20 per cent in 2024-25 to 14,750.

The figures are still well below the long-term average of 23,100 a year, but mortgage stress and cash flow constraints are at their highest since the global financial crisis, ASFA said in its state of personal insolvency report, released on Friday.

The report found 54.2 per cent of people who entered personal insolvency in 2022-23 were aged between 25 and 44 – a characteristic that has remained consistent over time.

Underlining the trend of young renting households getting hit by the worst of economic conditions, the number of debtors entering insolvency with low savings buffers – those with an asset to liability ratio of less than 10 per cent – increased from 15.7 per cent between 2017-20 to 20.6 per cent in 2020-23.

“They’re the people who are really going to hurt ... those renters, often young people, they haven’t built any assets or any capital,” ASFA chief executive Tim Beresford told The Australian Financial Review.

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“They are just starting off and actually have no assets and only cash. If they lose the cash, or the rent goes up substantially, it puts them in a really precarious position quite quickly, with a couple of credit card debts, a personal loan, and maybe a couple buy now, pay laters.”

More than 52 per cent of people entering bankruptcy did so with debts less than $50,000, and half of those have less than $10,000 in assets.

As of June 2023, all households, including both mortgage holders and renters, were spending 86 per cent of their disposable income on necessary living items, the report found.

“When you look at the aggregate numbers, which clearly the [Reserve Bank] looks at, the buffers are still quite strong,” Mr Beresford said. “But ... there’s actually quite a distribution, there’s a number of people with actually quite healthy asset to liability ratios.

“But at the other end of the distribution, there’s some people who are very vulnerable.”

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The Australian Taxation Office was the biggest single creditor in the personal insolvency system in 2022-23, with $2 billion owed. The big four banks held collective debts of people in insolvency of $2.6 billion, and a further $9.7 billion was held by all other creditors.

Business-related personal insolvency made up $9.6 billion of $14.3 billion in liabilities owed by people in insolvency in 2022-23.

Following a period of leniency during the pandemic, the ATO has been pursuing tax debts more aggressively. Across business and personal accounts, collectable tax debt has more than doubled since 2017, from $20.9 billion to an estimated $50 billion, budget papers reveal.

The largest share of this is about $30 billion in Goods and Service Tax. The more aggressive push on tax has led to an increase in corporate insolvencies.

Mr Beresford said trends in personal insolvencies often lagged about nine to 12 months behind corporate insolvencies. In 2022-23, 12.1 per cent of people who entered personal insolvency worked in construction, 11 per cent in social and healthcare assistance, and 9.5 per cent in retail.

Mr Beresford said one of the key drivers of personal insolvency would be employment.

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“The only way to stay afloat is by keeping employed,” he said. “If they don’t sustain a job, they are very quickly in trouble.”

Mr Beresford recommended those who are struggling should talk to the institutions they owe debts to early. He said the ATO and the big banks had been working harder with their hardship provisions.

“What happened with COVID is debtors reached out to the creditors, particularly the banks, and actually had a constructive conversation. Banks gave them a payment holiday, or refinancing terms, or interest only in advance,” he said.

“They actually found the experience worthwhile. If debtors speak early to their creditors, creditors will often seek to help them through a period of difficulty.”

Max Mason covers insolvency, courts, regulation, financial crime, cybercrime and corporate wrongdoing. A Walkley Award winner, Max's journalism has also received awards from the National Press Club of Australia, the Kennedy Awards and Citibank. Connect with Max on Twitter. Email Max at max.mason@afr.com

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