Yesterday
The hedge fund traders dominating a huge bet on bonds
A trio of top players in the “basis trade” are the driving force behind a gigantic wager on government debt that has regulators worried.
- Nishant Kumar, Donal Griffin and William Shaw
This Month
Bond traders bet on aggressive rate cuts in 2024
They believe Friday’s US inflation report will confirm a cooling in prices and open the door for early rate cuts next year, despite the jawboning from Fed officials.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
Here’s what you need to look for when buying bonds in 2024
When allocating to fixed income, there are things that fund managers look for. With two of the three boxes ticked already, next year could be interesting for the market.
- Chris Dickman
Dow’s record outruns central banks, counts on aggressive rate cuts
The Fed is expected to be the first central bank to lower rates next year, ahead of the European Central Bank and Bank of England, and months before the RBA.
- Cecile Lefort and Joanne Tran
Traders double down on RBA rate cuts after Fed pivot
Bond markets are pricing more aggressive monetary easing in the US and Australia after the Federal Reserve flagged a peak in interest rates.
- Cecile Lefort
AustralianSuper allocates $2.3b to private credit fund
The country’s biggest super fund has upped its allocation to the $US1.6 trillion private credit market amid shrinking bank balance sheets and tighter regulation.
- Sharon Klyne
Markets trim rate cut bets before Fed meeting
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data fuelled speculation Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will push back on rate cut expectations at the last meeting for 2023.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Why the best bond forecasters say the good times are over
Goldman Sachs says traders are falling into the same trap they did heading into the last two years: underestimating the US economy’s strength.
- Ye Xie
$A shrugs off iron ore rally as US Fed dominates
The Australia dollar remains at the mercy of the Federal Reserve until the middle of 2024, defying the usual strong influence of iron ore prices which typically support the currency.
- Cecile Lefort
Investors pour $1.2b into riskier debt as rate rise fears fade
The chase is on for opportunities in emerging markets as the prospect of a soft landing in the US and interest rate cuts next year boost risk appetites.
- Leda Alvim
Bond funds set to break two-year losing streak
Australian fixed-income managers are on track to finally generate a return this year amid signs the Reserve Bank is done with raising rates.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders pile into bets that Bank of Japan will end negative rate
A sharp strengthening of the yen served as a stark reminder to international investors that a major anchor for global borrowing costs may soon be dislodged.
- Masahiro Hidaka, Yumi Teso and Toru Fujioka
Bond traders to face a reality check with jobs report
Employment and wage growth are expected to have moderated last month; a miss could trigger a market reversal.
- Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller
$A predicted to sink below US60¢ next year
The Australian dollar is forecast to drop below to levels not seen since the pandemic, before rebounding next year once the Fed starts cuts rates aggressively.
- Cecile Lefort
Slowing economy fuels rate cut bets in Australia
Bonds rallied after weaker-than-expected GDP for third quarter stoked speculation the central bank could start easing monetary policy in 2024.
- Cecile Lefort
$A slides on Reserve Bank’s ‘doveish’ tone
The Australian dollar dropped below US66¢ and bond yields retreated after the Reserve Bank appeared less keen to raise the cash rate.
- Cecile Lefort
$A hits four-month high as Fed rate cut in sight
Investors are growing more confident the US will cut rates next year, which could pave the way for the Reserve Bank to follow suit.
- Cecile Lefort
November
US recession warning sets the stage for rate cuts
Commonwealth Bank’s Joseph Capurso says the world’s largest economy is headed for a hard landing, which will mean more rate cuts than the market has priced in.
- Cecile Lefort
Inflation falls mask bumps on the ‘last mile’ for central banks
Central bankers are warning it is too early to do a victory dance in their fight for stable prices. Investors, however, think differently.
- Valentina Romei and Martin Arnold
Traders trim rate rise bets after surprise inflation print
The bond market dialled back rate hike expectations on softer-than-expected CPI data, but it wasn’t enough to derail a spike in the Australian dollar.
- Cecile Lefort
