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Bonds

Today

Wall Street.

ASX to fall, S&P 500 rally runs out of petrol

Australian shares are set to open lower. US stocks sell-off late; Dow sheds 475 points. S&P 500 slides 1.5pc.

  • Updated
  • Timothy Moore
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

UK inflation slows more than forecast, fuelling rate-cut bets

Consumer prices rose 3.9 per cent from a year earlier, down from 4.6 per cent in October, according to the latest monthly data.

  • Tom Rees and Lucy White
Air-fare inflation dropped to 3.3 per cent in November from 7.9 per cent the previous month, while train and bus costs also increased by less year-on-year than in October.

Surprise fall in UK services inflation may hold key to rate cuts

Economists expect services inflation to continue subsiding, pushed lower by the drop in energy prices, the weakening jobs market and lacklustre demand.

  • Tom Rees

Yesterday

Global shift in rate cut bets sparks Santa rally

A “dovish” pivot from the Fed last week has lit a fire under equities, which have correctly bet that global monetary settings are shifting gear.

  • Updated
  • Sarah Jones and Cecile Lefort
The basis traders rely on vast sums of money borrowed from Wall Street banks.

The hedge fund traders dominating a huge bet on bonds

A trio of top players in the “basis trade” are the driving force behind a gigantic wager on government debt that has regulators worried.

  • Nishant Kumar, Donal Griffin and William Shaw
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Wall Street.

ASX to rise, S&P 500 edges closer to record high

Australian shares are set to open higher. Dow, Nasdaq 100 reset record highs. Fed official signals rate cut potential. Oil edges towards $US80 mark. $A rises.

  • Timothy Moore
The S&P 500 has rallied more than 5 per cent over the last month on rate cut expectations gather momentum.

Global fund mangers extend their equity bets

Fund managers are the most overweight equities relative to cash since January 2022, according to Bank of America’s latest survey of their holdings.

  • Timothy Moore

This Month

Wall Street.

ASX to rise, Wall Street powers higher

Australian shares are set to advance. S&P 500 paces gains in New York. Oil retakes $US78 mark. $A steady. Apple lower on Watch patent loss.

  • Timothy Moore
Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee.

Fed officials add to chorus pushing back against rate-cut bets

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said he was surprised by the outsize market reaction to the Fed’s updated quarterly economic projections last week.

  • Catarina Saraiva

Zip raises $150m corporate loans at 15pc

The buy now, pay later company says it has refinanced its corporate loan, the latest in a long-running effort to clean up its balance sheet.

  • Jonathan Shapiro
Tapas Strickland at National Australia Bank is tipping the Fed will start cutting rates in June.

Bond traders bet on aggressive rate cuts in 2024

They believe Friday’s US inflation report will confirm a cooling in prices and open the door for early rate cuts next year, despite the jawboning from Fed officials.

  • Cecile Lefort
Falling rates and rising markets have helped get deals moving again.

What’s behind Monday’s $5b deal frenzy

A burst of pre-Christmas deals isn’t unusual. But the impressive market rally in the past six weeks has helped unstick some deals that have been simmering for some time. 

  • James Thomson

BHP at $100, shorting banks, Qantas chaos: the best of Monday Fundie

From Regal to Ellerston Capital and Morningstar, the 48 fund managers profiled by the Financial Review were early, wrong and on the money in 2023.

  • Jonathan Shapiro and Sarah Jones
History says the best time to buy bonds is right before central banks start to cut rates.

Here’s what you need to look for when buying bonds in 2024

When allocating to fixed income, there are things that fund managers look for. With two of the three boxes ticked already, next year could be interesting for the market.

  • Chris Dickman

Dow’s record outruns central banks, counts on aggressive rate cuts

The Fed is expected to be the first central bank to lower rates next year, ahead of the European Central Bank and Bank of England, and months before the RBA.

  • Cecile Lefort and Joanne Tran
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Wall Street.

ASX to rise even as Fed-fuelled surge shows signs of overheating

The Federal Reserve-driven rally in global shares continued overnight, pushing the S&P 500 towards overbought levels.

  • Updated
  • Andrew Hobbs
The Australian Financial Review Business People of the Year for 2023 (from left): Sam Hupert, CEO and co-founder of ASX tech firm Pro Medicus; Lynas Rare Earths chief Amanda Lacaze; AustralianSuper chief investment officer Mark Delaney; Gina Rinehart, executive chairman of Hancock Prospecting; Airtrunk co-founder and CEO Robin Khuda; and Boral chief executive Vik Basal.

The Australian Financial Review names its Business Person of the Year

Gina Rinehart has capped an extraordinary year of deal-making across the mining, energy, agribusiness and retail sectors by taking out the top honour.

  • James Thomson
Mark Delaney’s restless spirit has helped him grow AustralianSuper to $310 billion in assets under management.

AusSuper’s Delaney ready to re-shape capital markets

AustralianSuper is a pioneer, builder and now a stirrer after blocking the takeover of Origin Energy. Chief investment officer Mark Delaney has seen it all.

  • Anthony Macdonald
Micaela Fuchila at Bank of America says the RBA lacks confidence that economic data is turning just yet.

Traders double down on RBA rate cuts after Fed pivot

Bond markets are pricing more aggressive monetary easing in the US and Australia after the Federal Reserve flagged a peak in interest rates.

  • Cecile Lefort
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell’s dovish genie is out of the bottle

The US Federal Reserve chairman said cutting rates had “now come into view”, and the markets ran with it.

  • Matthew Cranston