US Congress passes AUKUS to greenlight submarines

There had been concerns from both sides of US politics that supplying submarines to Australia would leave America’s domestic submarine program underfunded, but those concerns have since been allayed, with Australia agreeing to tip $US3 billion into the US industrial base.

However, former Defence Department official Michael Shoebridge warned that passage of the legislation did not guarantee Australia would receive Virginia-class submarines from the US.

Attention has been paid to clauses requiring the White House to be satisfied that transferring submarines would not diminish America’s undersea capabilities. But Mr Shoebridge said Congress also had the power to intervene in the AUKUS deal at any time and act independently of the president and the Pentagon.

“Congress is very interventionist,” said Mr Shoebridge, who now heads Strategic Analysis Australia. “The US is going to get under more pressure to meet its own submarine needs and Congress will get more sceptical about AUKUS.”

Bipartisan support

But Defence Minister Richard Marles denied AUKUS was under threat from future US political machinations.

“The reason why I’m confident is because I think that the critical thing that was demonstrated in the passage of this legislation is the bipartisan nature of this arrangement as it’s seen in America,” he said.

Democrat Congressman Joe Courtney said a presidential veto to halt handing over the submarines was unlikely to ever be used.

“The fact there really was not a whiff of opposition in terms of the House and Senate deliberations over the last two days I think augurs well,” Mr Courtney said.

Along with the sale of nuclear-powered submarines, the AUKUS legislation removes exports controls on the sale and licensing of sensitive high technology from the United States to Australia.

The new export control exemption is aimed partly at greater collaboration between the two allies, not just on nuclear-powered submarines but also advanced defence capabilities – hypersonic and counter-hypersonic, quantum and undersea technologies – and artificial intelligence.

An Australian Department of Defence analysis found the export reforms would deliver $614 million in value to defence companies over 10 years, largely through a reduction in regulatory compliance costs.

“A licence-free environment will encourage innovation and co-operation at an unprecedented pace that would provide Australia, and our AUKUS partners, a genuine capability development edge,” the analysis said.

The analysis said the exemptions would avoid the need for highly skilled Australian workers and companies to move to the United States to better navigate US regulatory requirements.

“Instead of having to move to the US, these skilled Australian workers and companies will be able to seamlessly collaborate with the US from Australia.

“It will reduce uncertainty around time delays for permit approval processes among and between Australia, the UK and the US, leading to greater cost and schedule certainties.”

Australia must still pass its own legislation ensuring that sensitive US technologies passed to Australia are not leaked to adversaries. Mr Courtney said he has been assured by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that such legislation would be approved “quickly”.

“To see this provision move the way it did, really, in my opinion, in a very rapid fashion ... I think was extraordinary, and I think it’s meaningful,” Mr Courtney said of the AUKUS legislation.