Sprawling and costly: Can Australia host COP31 in just two years?

The United Nations climate body that runs the COP process, known as the UNFCCC, will send fact-finding missions to Australia and Turkey in the first half of next year. It will report to a low-key intersessional COP meeting in Bonn next June. Delegates there will make a “draft” decision, which will be confirmed at COP29 in Azerbaijan next November.

There had been some expectation that the decision might be taken in Dubai, with the UNFCCC noting “the logistical and financial risks associated with delays in selecting a host country”.

The timetable for choosing the 2026 host was settled on Monday (Tuesday AEDT). Mr Bowen had already told reporters at the weekend that he was “not too stressed” about potentially having to wait another six to 12 months to get confirmation of whether Australia would host the event.

Australia is considered the front-runner, particularly as its bid was proffered jointly with the vulnerable countries of the Pacific, whose moral sway at COP conferences is very high.

The Australia-Pacific bid’s chief disadvantage is the distance of travel for many people, although travelling to COP30 in Brazil is an equally large stretch for many countries.

Mr Bowen said Australia and the Pacific had “a good, solid bid” and would be “continuing to engage in conversations” with other countries about it.

It is unclear if the Albanese government will get the opposition’s support for the COP31 bid. The coalition may choose to highlight the expense of hosting, and question whether it should be a government priority when voters are more concerned with the cost of living.

Richie Merzian, international director at the Smart Energy Council, said Australia could harvest reputational and commercial benefits from hosting COP31.

“It will provide an unprecedented platform to showcase renewables and green commodities, reset our climate reputation and diplomacy, and rebuild trade relations with neighbours based on exporting climate solutions,” he said.

Senior Queensland government figures have privately signalled openness to hosting COP31 in Brisbane, which could road-test logistics for the Olympics in 2032.

But the next Queensland state election is scheduled for October 2024. If Brisbane is the venue, the federal government might need to lock in bipartisan support, or else risk having an unco-operative state partner right before the decision is taken in Azerbaijan.

In Sydney, the question is whether the city has a venue large enough, and with sufficient public transport, to pull off the event.