COP28 deal pledges fossil fuel ‘transition’ for first time

He called COP28 “a clarion call to all of us about our obligations and responsibilities to make sure we’re reaching as far as we can to implement as fast as we can.”

Australia was understood to have been a key backer of the “transition” text on fossil fuels, which closely resembles the language of the Pacific Islands Forum communique last month.

Some climate-vulnerable countries were disappointed not to see a “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels, but were ultimately prepared to settle for the new text as better than any available alternative.

A disappointed Samoan lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen told the plenary: “We have made incremental advancements over business as usual, when what we really need is an exponential step change in our actions and support”.

In the communique, countries agreed to “contribute to” global efforts to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

Saudi Arabia may have been placated by the lack of any immediate targets, and the notion of an “orderly” transition. But green groups would have welcomed the reference to faster action in the current decade, even if there was no reference to peak emissions by 2025.

The first reaction from climate activists was positive. “This makes a clear call for the world to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action this decade,” said Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute.

“This dramatically moves the needle in the fight against climate change and overcomes immense pressure from oil and gas interests.”

But Climate Analytics chief executive Bill Hare said the communique was still too closely aligned to the interests of fossil fuel producers, and would not trigger action that went far enough or fast enough.

‘Transition away’

The COP28 communique asks countries to contribute to an eight-point list of global actions aimed at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees.

“It is the first time that the world unites around such a clear text on the need to transition away from fossil fuels,” said Norwegian foreign minister Espen Barth Eide. “It has been the elephant in the room. At last, we address it head on.”

The communique acknowledges that countries will have to do this in different ways to suit their different circumstances – a key demand from developing countries – and it also emphasises that national governments will make that call, which is a key China demand.

Although the commitment to “transition away” fell short of calling for a phase out, green groups took the references to fossil fuels as a win, tightening the ratchet another notch.

COP communiques did not mention any fossil fuels until the Glasgow 2021 text singled out coal, despite a history dating back to year after the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change came into effect in 1994.

“The Dubai climate conference has delivered an outcome that finally names and shames the key climate culprit – fossil fuels in our energy system,” said Richie Merzian, international director at the Smart Energy Council.

“The unintended focus on fossil fuels from the COP presidency helped deliver an outcome that has eluded climate negotiators for the last 30 years.”

The COP28 document echoed COP26’s explicit call to “phase down” unabated coal power, but dropped the idea, mooted on Monday, of countries agreeing not to permit any new coal-fired power stations – possibly to placate India and China.

It advocates strong action on reducing methane emissions, and calls for all fossil fuel subsidies to be phased out unless they are aimed at alleviating poverty.

But it contains new language on recognising “transitional fuels” – a move to appease countries with large gas industries. Mr Kerry said it was clear that such fuels should play only “a limited and temporary role”.

The Albanese government will welcome the inclusion in the communique of an earlier declaration, in the first days of the summit, to triple renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030. And the coalition will applaud the inclusion of the word “nuclear”.

The UAE’s deputy COP28 chief, Majid Al Suwaidi, said the process of finding consensus had proved challenging at this, “the most demanding COP agenda of all time”.

“All COPs are challenging, but at this COP we are trying to do something that has never been done before, something historic: we are trying to agree a comprehensive plan to close the gaps between where the world is, and where it needs to be to keep 1.5 degrees within reach,” he said.

Countries “have deeply held and deeply split views, especially on the language around fossil fuels … There are those who want phase out, there are those who want phase down, there are those who want different formulations. The point is to get a consensus.”