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The AFR View

The AFR View

Dutton’s political tactics are no governing agenda

The problem for the country with the Coalition’s approach of opposing much and proposing little is that the political heat is not being put on Labor to genuinely revamp its policy approach in the new year.

Just past the halfway mark of the Albanese government’s first term, the political popularity contest is even-stevens with Labor and the Coalition tied at a 50-50 two-party preferred vote, according to The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll published on Monday.

Labor’s slender 51-49 lead in the previous poll in September has evaporated after losing two points off a primary vote that has slipped to 31 per cent, lower than the 32.6 per cent received in the federal election in May last year.

Anthony Albanese’s shrinking lead as preferred prime minister is evidence Peter Dutton is not as “unelectable” as some pundits claim. 

The Coalition’s primary vote rose two points to 39 per cent, which is well above the 35.7 per cent of first preferences cast for Scott Morrison. That Labor has lost its lead for the first time since winning power is a measure of the government’s bad end to 2023 amid the messy handling of the High Court’s indefinite detention ruling.

It is also a measure of Peter Dutton’s political opportunism, such as the populist attack on Labor over the post-pandemic migration catch-up, which the poll suggests has helped push up to 60 per cent the proportion of voters who believe immigration levels are too high.

Mr Dutton will take heart from Anthony Albanese’s approval rating slide and a marked improvement in his personal standing with voters. Mr Albanese’s shrinking lead as preferred prime minister is also evidence Mr Dutton is not as “unelectable” as some pundits claim.

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But let’s get real here. Nineteen months after being turfed out of office, the Coalition has made up ground as Labor is marked down amid the cost-of-living crisis – which remains by far voter’s No. 1 concern – and the aftermath of the failure of the Indigenous Voice referendum. Yet, the polls still suggest that the best the Coalition can hope for, which would be the worst outcome for the country, is Labor being forced into minority government at the next election, due in early 2025.

With no real plan for winning back the six formerly safe Liberal Party inner-city heartland seats won by Teal independents last year, there appears to be no realistic prospect at this point of achieving Mr Dutton’s declared aim of a one-term return to government. More importantly, the Coalition’s political tactics, such as petty weaponising of the prime minister’s necessarily busy overseas travel schedule, is offering no genuine governing strategy to deal with the big challenges Australia faces, such as net zero, productivity and budget repair.

Where’s the policy?

The Coalition has seized on voters’ power bill shock to push the small nuclear reactor option to generate affordable, reliable and zero-emissions electricity. Yet, it has also revived the climate wars by opposing Labor’s expansion of the Abbott government’s de facto carbon price safeguard mechanism to help drive the lowest-cost, most efficient decarbonisation of the economy.

Australia needs to reverse its post-pandemic productivity slump to help the Reserve Bank finish the job of bringing inflation down. But apart from opposing Labor’s retro union-ordered workplace re-regulation, the Coalition has no real industrial relations policy to speak of to help lift enterprise-level productivity. On the budget, the Coalition accuses Labor’s “over-spending” of adding to inflation. But it has not backed restoring the medium-term fiscal framework of balanced budgets over the economic cycle that the Morrison government ditched during the pandemic.

The problem for the country with the Coalition’s tactics of opposing much and proposing little is that the political heat is not being put on Labor to genuinely revamp its policy approach in the new year.

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Off the back of mid-year economic and fiscal outlook showing the budget is most likely on track for a second small surplus in a row, Jim Chalmers used last week’s interview with The Australian Financial Review to talk up the prospect of Australia following the US back to low inflation and lower interest rates next year. What this upbeat assessment underscored was Dr Chalmers’ concern that responsible economic management will be the election-swinging issue.

With our poll showing Labor has now ceded its rating as the better economic manager as the cost-of-living issue bites, the treasurer is out there rebranding various government initiatives as Labor’s plan to “modernise our economy”.

But this is just a poll-driven political exercise to try to paper over Labor’s lack of a fair dinkum economic reform agenda, which is a bipartisan problem shared with Mr Dutton and the Coalition.

The Australian Financial Review's succinct take on the principles at stake in major domestic and global stories - and what policy makers should do about them.

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