The AFR View
COP28 pledges and realities
Whatever the outcome at the UN Climate Change Conference, the world will end its reliance on fossil fuels not to a political timetable but only when reliable, affordable replacements are a reality.
There are two ways of viewing the Arabian Peninsula location of this week’s 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference in the United Arab Emirates.
One is that a petrostate is a strange venue when the tension point at COP28 is over the push to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels to help avert disastrous global warming, which may play out over whether the final communiqué backs a “phase down” or “phase out”.
Chris Bowen sees Australia in the same camp as similar fossil fuel-producing countries backing a faster transition. David Rowe
The other is that even the world’s eighth-largest oil producer recognises the need to be part of the green energy future. Climate activists, however, fear the Gulf state’s real agenda is greenwashing and prolonging business as usual for oil, gas, and coal.
The Albanese government has sought to stamp its climate credentials upfront by signing up alongside 116 other countries to a pledge to triple the world’s renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. Australia will just about fulfil that commitment if it reaches the government’s 82 per cent renewable energy target by 2030.
Ahead of his arrival in Dubai, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said signing that pledge puts Australia in the same camp as similar fossil fuel-producing countries – such as the US, Canada and Norway – backing a faster transition.
Doubling down on ambitious climate pledges is one thing, and the optics of this may help boost Australia’s campaign to co-host COP31 with the Pacific nations in three years’ time.
However, the capacity to meet those pledges is another thing when global energy transitions, including Australia’s, face real-world supply chain and other physical constraints.
Whatever the outcome at COP28, the world will end its reliance on fossil fuel energy not to a political timetable, but only when reliable, affordable replacements are a reality.
Engineering realities have led Mr Bowen to belatedly back the role of gas to provide reliable backup firmed generation for wind and solar power.
But in keeping with the anti-gas policies of Australia’s most left-wing government in Victoria, he has also excluded gas from the Capacity Investment Scheme designed to turbocharge the renewables transition.
And for essentially political reasons as well, Australia has not signed on at COP28 with 22 other countries to a pledge to triple zero-emissions nuclear energy by 2050.
Introducing your Newsfeed
Follow the topics, people and companies that matter to you.
Find out moreRead More
Latest In Energy & climate
Fetching latest articles