Fossil fuel phase-out good for Australia, Bowen says

“We’re fossil fuel exporters, we’ve got things at stake. [But] we also see the economic opportunities for our country, and we see the opportunity for us to work with other countries on their decarbonisation journey,” he said.

Climate, environment and energy ministers are involved in a frantic, almost continuous and sleepless effort to find a COP28 outcome that keeps a sense of momentum behind efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. After a fortnight of talks, the notional deadline for a deal is late Tuesday AEDT, although COPs can often overrun.

The main roadblock is the intransigence of Saudi Arabia, which is opposed to any mention of fossil fuels in the COP28 decision. Other countries from the 13-member Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are probably also opposed, but are largely hiding behind the Saudis’ skirts.

Mr Bowen described the Saudi position as “blunt and clear”, and said he had held a long and respectful meeting with his Saudi counterpart.

“Not every country is yet on the same page. That’s why we are here. We didn’t all arrive, get off the plane, with the same speaking notes. That’s what these conferences are about, to draw out the issues and reach a consensus,” he said.

The summit is unlikely to settle on a deal that unequivocally backs a fossil-fuel phase-out. If countries get anywhere near that language, it is likely be restricted to “unabated” fossil fuels. This opens up a potentially large role for abatement – that is, carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS).

Mr Bowen told an emergency ministerial meeting late on Sunday night (AEDT) that CCUS was a “backstop”. He compared the largely unproven and costly technology to a soccer goalkeeper.

“You don’t go on to the soccer field without the goalkeeper, nor do you rely on the goalkeeper entirely. You have the goalkeeper on the field,” he said.

Mr Bowen chairs an “umbrella group” of countries, which includes major fellow fossil-fuel producers the US, Britain, Norway and Canada, that is trying to work with the European Union on a compromise outcome.

This appears to revolve around adopting the language used recently by the G7, which would call for unabated fossil fuels to peak in the near term and be eliminated by mid-century.

COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber used a press appearance to warn countries that “the clock is ticking”.

“We need to move much, much faster … Failure, or lack of progress, or watering down my ambition, is not an option,” he said. “I really want everyone to rise above self-interest and to start thinking [of the] common good, what’s in everyone’s common interest.”

His unusual move to try and break the impasse with a “majlis” – an Arabic term for a communal sit-down – allowed ministers to make unscripted comments, rather than stick to the usual laborious practice of reading out statements to the plenary session.

Strongly worded call

After the meeting, the European Union claimed there was “a super-majority” of the 190-plus nations at COP28 in favour of a strongly worded call to phase out fossil fuels. Mr Bowen did not comment directly, but noted that majorities counted for less in a process that relied on total consensus.

The Bolivian minister at the majlis reportedly called Australia and other fossil-fuel producers “hypocrites” for urging tough action while increasing oil and gas production. Australia expects to continue producing gas until the mid-2030s.

Mr Bowen said Bolivia’s “colourful contribution” had dwelt at length on the history of colonialism and relations between the world’s rich “north” and poor “south”. “I didn’t take particular offence, because it was in keeping with Bolivia’s well-known views about North-South relations,” he said.

He told the majlis that to keep warming to within 1.5 degrees, “we don’t need to phase out fossil-fuel emissions, we need to end the use of fossil fuels in our energy systems”.

“I speak as minister of a country that is one of the biggest fossil fuel exporters,” he said.

Maximalist position

Pacific leaders have been putting pressure on Australia to take a maximalist position on phasing out fossil fuels, and Mr Bowen rejected any sense of tension with the neighbours.

”I’ve been working very closely with the Pacific and I think you’ll find a high degree of alignment, and of course, we are working hard to get a good outcome,” he said.

Within the meeting, Mr Bowen told Dr Jaber: “We also live in the Pacific, and we are not going to see our brothers and sisters inundated and their countries swallowed by the seas. We are not going to do that.”

In another nod to the Pacific, he said Australia “recognises that all countries have a different pathway” – a totemic issue for developing countries – and said the climate finance decision at next year’s COP should “provide for the support necessary for countries to reach their 1.5 targets”.

The big oil producers of the Middle East are single-mindedly determined to prevent COP28 from constraining their ability to expand production. They want to focus on emissions rather than extraction, suggesting an even bigger role for CCUS and other forms of abatement.

“It’s very clear that there is a group of countries here that don’t want to phase out fossil fuels,” German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said.

India and China are also likely to try to head off any premature shutdown of their relatively new generations of coal-fired power plants. The US has signalled it plans a significant role for CCUS.

China’s veteran climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said at the weekend that COP28 could not be considered a success if it lacked an agreement on fossil fuels, although he did not commit Beijing to a phase-out.

“The positions on the issue are currently very antagonistic, and China is trying to find a solution that is acceptable to all parties and can solve the problems,” he said.