Are banks about to play a big game of musical chairs?

Elliott is expected to still be in the top job when ANZ finds out whether its proposed takeover has been given the green light from the consumer watchdog and Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

That’s because the process for appointing a new CEO is a lengthy one; it can take at least six months to identify the best candidate, and then a further six months before an external candidate is in a position to commence the job.

Another possible exit

There’s also intense speculation in banking circles as to how much longer NAB boss Ross McEwan will continue in the top job, given that he’s largely completed the task he set himself when he took the job in December 2019 – of reinvigorating the Melbourne-based bank and cementing its position as the country’s leading business bank.

Some are sceptical, pointing out that it’s normal for such rumours to start up when a chief executive has been in the job for three years. What’s more, McEwan is understood to have told the bank’s senior executives late last year that he was energised by the challenges that lay in front of NAB.

Still, as an extremely diligent chief executive, McEwan has made sure he’s put in place a training program for NAB senior executives to equip them with the leadership skills to take on more challenging roles.

There will also be some changes at the top level of Westpac, after the bank’s chairman, John McFarlane, announced that he would step down this year.

McFarlane agreed to become chairman in early 2020 when the bank was reeling from an anti-money-laundering compliance crisis that led to the exit of its former chairman and chief executive.

The threat of heightened turnover at the top levels in banking will likely be a source of anxiety for Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Comyn, given there’s a recognised lack of talent in the market.

Comyn will be nervous that headhunters will be surreptitiously approaching his executive team to canvass their interest in stepping into these plum positions.

In particular, he’ll be keeping a close eye on Angus Sullivan, who has run Commonwealth Bank’s formidable retail banking business since mid-2018.

He’ll also be apprehensive that headhunters will make approaches to Vittoria Shortt, who has done a good job running Commonwealth Bank’s New Zealand banking business, ASB Bank, which she has led for five years.

Of course, ANZ has a long list of internal candidates in the running to take the top job.

One of them is Maile Carnegie, who runs ANZ’s largest business – its retail banking operations.

Antonia Watson, who runs ANZ’s New Zealand operations, is another strong internal candidate. ANZ Bank NZ is the largest company in New Zealand. Watson also reports directly to the ANZ board, which means that she already has visibility with ANZ directors.

Mark Whelan, who runs ANZ’s important institutional banking divisions, is also considered to be another internal candidate with strong credentials for the top job.